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RUNNERS LAB

Marathon Potential
Calculator

Estimate marathon time from a 5K, 10K, or half using Riegel.

Last reviewed 19 August 2026

Marathon potential asks Riegel only at 42.195 km. A 1:45 half predicts a slower marathon than double-plus-ten folklore. A 20:00 5K predicting a marathon is a large jump — the model is weakest there. This is the race time predictor with the target locked to the marathon.

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Race time

Enter the finish time you want to run.

Marathon potential

3:38:55

  • Riegel 1.06
  • Planning estimate

What this result means

The general predictor will already give you a marathon row. This page exists because “what marathon does my half suggest?” is a search of its own, and because the copy can spend all of its scepticism on the marathon: heat, fuelling, and the long-run problem.

Pick 5K, 10K, or half, enter the time, get one marathon estimate. Compare with VDOT equivalents if you want a second model.

A 46:20 10K predicts about 3:33:09 for the marathon under Riegel 1.06 on this site. A 1:45:00 half predicts a marathon slower than 3:30 even if doubling 1:45 and adding ten minutes is a folk formula people quote.

A 20:00 5K maps to an ambitious marathon. If you have not run longer than 12 km, treat that number as a ceiling, then train.

Calculation method

T_marathon = T_known × (42.195 / D_known)^1.06. Same engine as the race time predictor. Cite Riegel 1981.

Deterministic estimate. Not a qualifying standard.

Undertrained marathons miss Riegel by a lot. Heat, hills, and no long runs are the usual reasons. Inverse required-performance tells you the half you need for a marathon goal.

Full methodology →

Frequently asked questions

What marathon does a 1:45 half predict?

Riegel with 1.06, not “double plus ten.” Enter half and 1:45:00 on this page for the number this site uses.

Why not just use the race time predictor?

You can. This page locks the target to the marathon and writes marathon-specific limits.

Is this my Boston qualifier?

No. Qualifying times are published by race organisers. This is a formula.

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